Washington has quietly granted U.S. export licenses for up to 75,000 Nvidia H200 chips each to roughly ten of China's largest technology companies — but not a single chip has shipped.
The disconnect sits at the heart of one of the most consequential trade friction points in the current U.S.–China technology cold war: America has opened the door, China is not walking through it, and Nvidia's chief executive flew to Beijing this week on Air Force One to try to change that.
The Licenses: What Washington Approved
The U.S. Commerce Department has issued export licences authorising approximately ten Chinese technology firms to purchase Nvidia's H200 GPU — the company's second-most-powerful AI accelerator currently approved for sale outside the United States.
Named recipients include Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com, with distributors Lenovo and Foxconn also cleared to participate. Each named buyer is authorised to purchase up to 75,000 H200 units, creating a theoretical order book ceiling approaching 750,000 chips if all licences were drawn in full — a figure that would represent a substantial revenue event for Nvidia given current GPU pricing.
The approvals were granted under a licensing architecture that includes an unusual provision negotiated by the Trump administration: chips must transit U.S. territory before delivery to China, and Washington receives a portion — reported to be approximately 25% — of the revenue generated by the sales. The transit requirement has itself generated unease in Beijing, with Chinese officials and buyers reportedly concerned about potential supply-chain interference or embedded monitoring capabilities.
The Paradox: Zero Shipments
Despite the U.S. clearances, zero H200 chips have been delivered to any Chinese buyer.
The bottleneck is not American bureaucracy — it is Beijing. Chinese technology firms that hold U.S. purchase licences have suspended their orders following guidance from the Chinese central government to pause H200 procurement. Beijing has reportedly launched a State Council-level supply-chain security review directed at reducing Chinese corporate dependence on American semiconductor technology, according to Reuters and BNN Bloomberg reporting.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick offered a blunt assessment — widely reported across multiple outlets — that captures the impasse: "The Chinese central government has not let them, as of yet, buy the chips, because they're trying to keep their investment focused on their own domestic industry." (Lutnick's remarks have been reproduced across multiple news outlets; the original forum may predate the May 14 wire cycle.)
The strategic calculus in Beijing is legible: domestic AI chipmakers — led by Huawei — remain behind Nvidia's best silicon, but Chinese policymakers view subsidised reliance on American GPUs as a strategic liability. Companies like DeepSeek have amplified that narrative by publicly highlighting their use of domestically produced chips in high-profile AI deployments. Accelerating H200 imports, in Beijing's view, could blunt the commercial incentive for Chinese firms to develop or fund indigenous alternatives.
Jensen Huang, Air Force One, and the Summit Play
The geopolitical theatre around this story intensified sharply in the past 48 hours.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was conspicuously absent from the initial roster of American executives accompanying President Trump to Beijing for his summit with President Xi Jinping — an omission Semafor and CNBC described as deliberate, intended to avoid "awkward conversations" around chip export politics. Then, in a last-minute reversal, President Trump personally called Huang and invited him to join the delegation. Huang boarded Air Force One in Alaska, where the aircraft refuelled en route to the Chinese capital.
Huang arrived in Beijing alongside Elon Musk and Apple CEO Tim Cook — a business cohort whose presence signals the summit's technology-and-trade framing. In brief remarks to reporters, Huang called the Trump–Xi meeting "one of the most important summits in human history" but declined to comment directly on Nvidia's stalled H200 sales. Xi Jinping told assembled U.S. business leaders that China would "open wider" to American commerce, without specifically addressing AI chip procurement policy.
The operative question — whether Beijing will lift or soften its informal guidance against H200 orders as part of a broader trade reset — remained unanswered as of press time.
The Market Read: NVDA Gains, Analysts Raise Targets
Nvidia shares responded to the Reuters exclusive on the licences. NVDA saw premarket gains of more than 3% and traded up on the day, with the stock trading in the approximately $234–236 range on May 14 (consolidated figures vary by data vendor and timestamp; intraday highs were reported around $236.40–$236.54). Some analysts cited the news as reason to raise price targets — at least one firm moved its NVDA target to $350 (per TipRanks, May 14, 2026).
The market optimism, however, runs ahead of revenue realisation. Nvidia generates only around 5% of its revenue from China today, down sharply from a substantially higher share prior to successive rounds of U.S. export controls — analyst summaries and wire reports have cited figures ranging from roughly 13% to above 20% depending on product mix and fiscal period; readers should consult Nvidia's most recent 10-K for primary disclosure. The company's most recent H20 chip (a downgraded export model) generated a reported $2.5 billion inventory charge when further controls were imposed, and analysts had modelled an approximately $8 billion headwind to Q2 revenue from those H20 curbs (per analyst commentary reported in spring 2026 wires).
H200 shipments to the ten named buyers, if they materialise, would meaningfully reverse that trajectory. If they do not, the licences represent optionality, not revenue.
What Happens Next
This story is developing. Key variables as of May 15:
- Will Beijing lift its guidance? No official Chinese statement has reversed the hold on H200 procurement. The summit communique, expected in the coming days, may or may not address semiconductor trade specifically.
- The rare-earth exchange? Reports indicate Huang's Beijing agenda includes a parallel negotiation over Chinese export restrictions on rare-earth magnets and chip-grade gallium — materials critical to Nvidia's own supply chain. A reciprocal easing on both sides would represent a meaningful de-escalation.
- The 25% revenue arrangement: The transit-and-revenue structure negotiated by the Trump administration is novel and its durability — both legally and diplomatically — remains untested.
- H20 vs. H200 dynamics: The H20 (Nvidia's previously approved downgraded export chip) and H200 operate under different licence regimes. Whether cleared H200 buyers accelerate orders or continue to hold pending a clearer political signal is the near-term commercial catalyst to watch.
Risk Flags
Legal/Compliance: Article discusses active export control policy and pending government decisions. All claims sourced to named reporting outlets (Reuters via CNBC, BNN Bloomberg, The Next Web). No non-public information used. Commerce Secretary Lutnick quote reproduced via Reuters/BNN Bloomberg (May 14, 2026 wire cycle); original remarks may originate in earlier official statements or congressional testimony — date of first utterance not independently verified against primary source. NVDA session figures are approximate consolidated estimates and vary across data vendors. China revenue share figures sourced to analyst wire summaries; Nvidia's 10-K filings are the authoritative primary source.
Market sensitivity: Article discusses a publicly traded company (NVDA, NASDAQ). All stock figures cited are drawn from publicly available data. This article does not constitute investment advice.
Developing story: Multiple key facts remain unresolved as of drafting. Article is labeled as developing throughout.
Sources
- Reuters / CNBC — "U.S. clears H200 chip sales to 10 China firms as Nvidia CEO looks for breakthrough" (May 14, 2026): CNBC
- BNN Bloomberg / Reuters — Same story (May 14, 2026): BNN Bloomberg
- CNBC — "Jensen Huang joins Trump's China trip after the U.S. president called the Nvidia CEO" (May 13, 2026): CNBC
- CNBC — "Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang isn't part of Trump's China trip" (May 12, 2026): CNBC
- CNBC — "Nvidia's Jensen Huang on China trip: 'President Trump asked me to come'" (May 14, 2026): CNBC
- CNBC — "Xi tells Musk, Tim Cook and other CEOs on Trump's trip: China will 'open wider'" (May 14, 2026): CNBC
- The Next Web — "US clears H200 sales to 10 Chinese firms, but not a single chip has shipped" (May 14, 2026): The Next Web
- WION — "Why China blocked Nvidia H200 AI chip sales despite US approval and Trump's push" (May 14, 2026): WION
- Yahoo Finance / Reuters — "Exclusive-US Clears H200 Chip Sales to 10 China Firms…" (May 14, 2026): Yahoo Finance
- TipRanks — "Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Price Target Raised to $350 amid China H200 News" (May 14, 2026): TipRanks
- Bloomberg — "Nvidia Gets US License for Small Amount of H200 Exports to China" (Feb 26, 2026): Bloomberg
- Semafor — "Nvidia CEO joins China trip despite 'awkward' politics" (May 12, 2026): Semafor
- Bloomberg — "Nvidia CEO Huang Joins Trump's China Visit as Last-Minute Addition" (May 13, 2026): Bloomberg
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